新能源及有色金属日报：宏观分歧渐起，镍不锈钢价格弱势震荡-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - emotions, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space [3]. - Stainless steel prices have limited downside space due to eleven - week consecutive inventory declines and rising material costs, but overall demand recovery is not obvious, and the price is expected to move in a range - bound manner [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,140 yuan/ton, closed at 120,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 52,899 (- 13,200) lots, and the open interest was 37,993 ( + 6,250) lots. The contract showed a weak volatile trend throughout the day, with a high of 121,440 yuan/ton and a low of 120,500 yuan/ton. The Fed's internal policy divergence after the 25 - basis - point interest rate cut last week put pressure on nickel prices [1]. - Nickel Ore: The new round of quotes has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Typhoon weather has affected nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas. Philippine mines' quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the current domestic trade premium is + 24, with a premium range of + 23 - 24 [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading has warmed up. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel brands remained stable, with those of Huayou and Zhongwei brands slightly increased. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,464 (- 72) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 230,454 ( + 1,554) tons [2]. - Strategy - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - emotions. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2511 opened at 12,910 yuan/ton, closed at 12,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,017 ( + 139,017) lots, and the open interest was 123,891 (- 4,171) lots. The contract oscillated around the previous trading day's settlement price throughout the day, with a high of 12,955 yuan/ton and a low of 12,865 yuan/ton, finally closing down 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by about 19% compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,071 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and strong wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - Spot: Due to the lack of obvious improvement in downstream demand, market confidence has weakened, spot inquiries have decreased, and trading has been sluggish. Typhoon weather affected shipping and pick - up in Foshan. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,200 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,200 (- 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 955.0 yuan/nickel point, a change of 0.50 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - Strategy - The stainless steel price has limited downside space but overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to move in a range - bound manner. The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].