新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅现货价格仍有支撑，盘面回落后有所企稳-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the futures market is slightly volatile. The current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The previous increase in the industrial silicon market was mainly due to capital behavior and news, but there is still pressure above. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity exit, the market may have room to rise [3]. - The polysilicon supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Spot prices still have some support, but policy implementation is in progress, leading to large market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,930 yuan/ton and closed at 8,925 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton (-2.30%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,696 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,963 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were slightly stable [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Some monomer plants' pre - sales have been scheduled until the end of this month and early next month. Monomer plants' willingness to support prices has increased, but price increases face constraints. New orders have decreased, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. Medium - term: the valuation is low, and long positions can be considered for contracts during the dry season [3]. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 declined and then fluctuated. It opened at 50,900 yuan/ton and closed at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,091 lots, and the trading volume was 296,108 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. The price of N - type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 20.40 (with a month - on - month change of - 6.80%), and silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (with a month - on - month change of 1.93%). Polysilicon weekly output was 31,000 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (with a month - on - month change of 0.29%) [4][5]. - The center of the polysilicon transaction price moved slightly upward. The market was polarized. Resources below 52 yuan were more popular, while downstream acceptance of prices above 53 yuan was limited [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5][6]. Strategy - Short - term: conduct range operations. - There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, if the market corrects significantly, long positions can be considered [7].