纯苯苯乙烯日报：EB基差进一步走弱-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. The operation of domestic existing plants has slightly declined, and the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream提货 and procurement for stocking before the festival have increased the de - stocking rate of port inventories. The downstream operation of pure benzene has rebounded from the bottom, but the overall operation is still low, and the sustainability of downstream procurement is questionable [3]. - For styrene, the downstream提货 volume has declined during the peak season, and the arrival of EB has been concentrated, leading to the re - accumulation of port inventories. The absolute level of port inventories is still high, and the EB basis has further weakened. The operation of EB has gradually recovered since late September. Among the downstream of EB, the operation of ABS and PS has slightly declined, while the operation of EPS before the National Day was acceptable, and the inventory pressure of ABS is relatively large. Overseas, the operation of EB in Europe and the United States is still low, but the price difference between EB in Europe and the United States and China has continued to weaken, and the paper - cargo locked import window for EB has been opened [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 30 yuan/ton (+36), and the spot - M2 spread is 0 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 0 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Price Differences of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 132 US dollars/ton (- 3 US dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 114 US dollars/ton (- 2 US dollars/ton). The US - Korea price difference of pure benzene is 37.5 US dollars/ton (- 3.0 US dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 562 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 10.70 million tons (- 2.70 million tons), and the operating rate has a slight decline. Styrene East China port inventory is 186,500 tons (+27,500 tons), East China commercial inventory is 98,500 tons (+20,500 tons), and the operating rate is 73.4% (- 1.5%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 249 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 1 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 16 yuan/ton (+81 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 61.74% (+0.72%), PS operating rate is 61.20% (- 0.70%), and ABS operating rate is 69.80% (- 0.20%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1890 yuan/ton (- 85), phenol - acetone production profit is - 196 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 62 yuan/ton (+91), and adipic acid production profit is - 1306 yuan/ton (- 12). Caprolactam operating rate is 88.69% (+2.48%), phenol operating rate is 71.00% (+2.00%), aniline operating rate is 71.95% (+6.74%), and adipic acid operating rate is 62.60% (- 1.60%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies [4] - Basis and inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]