燃料油日报：市场多空因素交织，等待新的变量催化-20250924

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and new variables are needed for a clear trend. Oil prices are range - bound, with a mid - term expectation of oversupply and short - term geopolitical uncertainties. The price direction guidance for fuel oil is limited [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have marginally improved recently. Although supply is still relatively abundant and inventory is high, the pressure has eased compared to the previous period. The market structure has strengthened, and the Singapore spot premium has turned positive. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the high - sulfur oil market, and there is limited upward or downward drive from the current position [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply pressure has increased due to the Nigerian Dangote refinery's increased exports after an RFCC device shutdown. However, the overall supply pressure is limited as the Western arbitrage cargo volume has declined and domestic production remains at a medium - low level. The strong premium of gasoline and diesel over low - sulfur oil diverts components and supports the crack spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.68% at 2,758 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures also closed down 0.68% at 3,350 yuan/ton [1]. - Oil prices are in a range - bound state. The mid - term balance sheet shows an expectation of oversupply, and there are many short - term geopolitical uncertainties, making the trend unclear and providing limited guidance on fuel oil prices [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, mid - term downward [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, mid - term downward [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].