新能源及有色金属日报：盘面偏弱现货成交好转-20250924

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread [8] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market shows a weak performance on the futures side but an improvement in spot trading, with stable supply, recovering domestic consumption, and strong exports. The inventory is expected to enter a destocking cycle. Attention should be paid to changes in interest - rate cut expectations and overseas inflation data [6]. - The alumina market has an unsolvable supply - surplus problem, and the opening of the import window exacerbates the situation. Some plants are facing losses, and the instability in Guinea needs to be highly concerned. The current futures price is undervalued, and there may be cost support if the cost does not decline [6][7]. - The aluminum alloy market has a recovering downstream consumption but still has an oversupply situation. The inventory is rising, and the spread repair with the aluminum price may face obstacles [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,680 yuan/ton, a change of - 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,660 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes by 30 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,630 yuan/ton, a change of - 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 23, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,700 yuan/ton, closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, a change of - 85 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 123,298 lots, and the open interest was 225,448 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of September 23, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 68,960 tons, a change of - 1,801 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 513,850 tons, a change of - 50 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 23, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,960 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,930 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,005 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,165 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,170 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 23, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,926 yuan/ton, closed at 2,877 yuan/ton, a change of - 57 yuan/ton or - 1.94%. The highest price was 2,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,868 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 443,531 lots, and the open interest was 328,210 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 23, 2025, the Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum purchase price was 15,900 yuan/ton, the mechanical scrap aluminum purchase price was 16,100 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,300 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5].