化工日报：EG市场弱势整理-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG market is in a weak consolidation state. The spot price of EG in the East China market and the closing price of the main EG contract both decreased, and the production profit also declined. The inventory showed a slight increase. The supply side has high domestic load and many overseas supply losses, with potential reduction in imports from September to October. The demand side has slow recovery and insufficient order connection, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with limited upside. The EG balance sheet in September has little imbalance, with low main - port inventory, but the early output of Yulong advances the inventory accumulation time, resulting in greater inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,212 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton or -0.66% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,292 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton or -1.15% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 84 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -73 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was -247 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data or analysis is provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The current demand is recovering slowly, with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 46.7 tons (up 0.2 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 38.4 tons (up 2.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival volume at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]