阿根廷免税政策下的豆类交易策略

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market decline due to Argentina's tax - exemption policy on soybeans is followed by a reasonable trading strategy of buying soybean meal and soybean oil on dips [1] - Argentina's soybean and its downstream products have limited additional export potential, and it's difficult to fundamentally impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern [4] - The tax - exemption policy can improve the domestic soybean supply gap before the Spring Festival, but the import cost has limited room to decline, and it's hard to support a continuous drop in soybean prices [9] - With the current La Nina climate, the weather risk in South American soybean - producing areas will influence soybean prices, and short - term negative factors have been partially released, suggesting a dip - buying strategy [14][25] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Argentina's Potential Soybean Export Capacity is Limited - From the supply - demand fundamentals, Argentina's additional export space for soybeans and downstream products is narrow. The 2024/25 annual carry - over stock is 675 million tons, the 2025/26 expected carry - over stock is 695 million tons, and the tax - exemption policy is estimated to stimulate an additional export of 300 - 400 million tons [4][5] - The high inflation rate (208.09% in 2024) and the continuous depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar, along with government policies, make market players prefer to hold physical goods rather than release stocks [5] - The export elasticity of Argentine soybean meal and soybean oil is lower, with an estimated additional export of about 100 million tons of soybean meal and 25 million tons of soybean oil [5] 2. Domestic Soybean Purchase Costs are Unlikely to Drop Significantly 2.1 The Domestic Soybean Supply Gap Before the Spring Festival is Expected to Improve - By the report date, the total pre - Spring Festival 2026 soybean purchase demand is about 3300 million tons, with about 2030 million tons already purchased and 1260 million tons remaining. If Argentina's additional 300 - 400 million tons of soybeans enter the domestic market, the gap will be alleviated [10][11] 2.2 The Decline in Imported Soybean Costs is Constrained by Multiple Factors - Based on "pessimistic - neutral - optimistic" scenarios, the import cost of Argentine soybeans ranges from 3459 yuan/ton to 3898 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans from 3693 yuan/ton to 4133 yuan/ton, and US soybeans (assuming a 3% import tariff) from 3635 yuan/ton to 4015 yuan/ton, indicating limited decline space [12][13] 3. Weather - Driven Market is Approaching - As of September 22, 2025, the NINO3.4 index was - 0.846, below the La Nina threshold of - 0.5 [15] - La Nina affects the atmospheric circulation, increasing precipitation in some areas and causing high - temperature and low - rainfall conditions in others, which impacts soybean yields [16] - Since 2008, there have been 4 La Nina events affecting soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil, with the 2022 - 2023 event having the greatest impact on soybeans [21] 4. Dip - Buying Trading Strategy - After considering supply - demand, cost, and weather factors, it is recommended to buy soybean meal and soybean oil on dips [25] - For the M2601 soybean meal contract, the entry range is 2900 - 2950 yuan/ton, the stop - loss price is around 2830 yuan/ton, and the target profit is around 3230 yuan/ton, with a profit - loss ratio of about 3:1 [26] - For the 2601 soybean oil contract, the entry range is 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton, the stop - loss price is around 7880 yuan/ton, and the target profit is around 8680 yuan/ton, with a profit - loss ratio of about 3:1 [27]