黑色建材日报：市场预期转弱，钢价弱势运行-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Steam Coal: No strategy suggested [7] 2. Core Views - The market expectation for steel has weakened, leading to a weak performance in steel prices. Extreme weather has hindered logistics and transportation in the south, causing terminal demand to stagnate and speculative demand to decline significantly. The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday is limited [1]. - The iron ore market is under cautious observation and is oscillating. This week, the arrival of iron ore has decreased slightly month - on - month, while iron ore demand remains high due to high pig iron production. Attention should be paid to the impact of the change in floating cargo volume on arrival and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - Coking coal and coke have strong bottom support and are oscillating. The supply - demand structure of coke has tightened, and there is an expectation of price increases from major coke enterprises, but coke inventories have continued to accumulate. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, market sentiment is positive, and demand is considerable. The relatively strong steam coal price and pre - holiday restocking demand support the coking coal price [5][6]. - The pre - holiday restocking of steam coal is basically completed, and the market's price - holding sentiment has declined. The supply of steam coal is sufficient, and the daily consumption of power coal has begun to decline, resulting in a decrease in market demand. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: Domestic steel market prices have changed from rising to falling, with black futures falling across the board and spot prices weakly correcting. The trading volume has shrunk. The rebar main contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel is average, and the national building materials trading volume is 91977 tons, showing a significant decrease compared with the previous day [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating weakly, and no strategies are suggested for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore weakened slightly yesterday. The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.74%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 179.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65.53%. The total trading volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 227 million tons (18 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 87.6% (including 118 million tons of mine trading volume) [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, and no strategies are suggested for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. On the spot side, the coal prices in the main production areas generally continued to rise, while the prices of some coal varieties in a few coal mines decreased. The coke market remained stable, and the coke production on the supply side remained stable. The price of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise slightly, with the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal rising to around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating. No strategies are suggested for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Steam Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, the coal prices oscillated. The inspection of over - production in the production areas continued to be strict, but the overall impact was limited, and the coal supply was sufficient. Some coal mines had low inventories, and their prices remained stable. At ports, as the pit - mouth coal price continued to rise, buyers' resistance increased, the pre - holiday restocking was basically completed, and market demand declined. In terms of imports, the tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the price of low - calorie domestic coal rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [7]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested [7].