尿素日报：内需依旧偏弱，九江心连心开车成功-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral strategy, suggests a counter - spread for UR01 - 05 after the export window period, and no strategy for the cross - variety [4]. Core View - Domestic demand for urea is still weak, with spot prices of domestic urea market showing a weak and volatile trend. The start of autumn fertilizers in some regions and less off - season reserves, along with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizer purchases in industrial demand and rigid demand for melamine, lead to continued accumulation of urea inventory in factories, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the successful start - up of Jiujiang Xinlianxin indicates that the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The export side has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is conducive to continuous urea exports, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 23, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1658 yuan/ton (-2). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1620 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1610 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was - 48 yuan/ton (-8), in Henan was - 38 yuan/ton (+2), and in Jiangsu was - 38 yuan/ton (-8) [2]. 2. Urea Production - As of September 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 81.21% (0.08%) [2]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 80 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1140 yuan/ton (+19). In August, 800,000 tons of urea were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected to be good [2][3]. 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 38.63% (+0.81%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+1.40%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.18 days (-0.70) [2]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 23, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1653 million tons (+32,600 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 516,000 tons (-33,400 tons) [2].