农产品日报：苹果好货不足，红枣供需乏力-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the apple industry, the current inventory level is low, providing bottom - price support. New - season high - quality apples have high prices, affecting the sales of inventory apples. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [4] - For the红枣 industry, the 2024 production season had large output and high inventory but poor quality. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with inventory pressure still present. If the subsequent assessment of yield and quality is lower than expected, the upward trend of红枣 prices may continue, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking also needs attention [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8288 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.04% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP01 - 688, a change of + 3 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP01 + 1312, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the Shandong production area, some Red Generals are in the later stage, with small - truck customers preferring low - priced Red Generals. The sales of old stored Fuji in Shandong Qixia and Penglai have slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, different varieties of apples have different price ranges. In Liaoning Wafangdian, the prices of different varieties of early - maturing apples are also given. The late - maturing Fuji is gradually being de - bagged, and attention should be paid to its quality and the price trend of pre - harvested Fuji [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed slightly lower yesterday. The spot - end prices in production areas are differentiated, with high - quality goods having a premium. The double - festival stocking in sales areas is progressing as needed. The current basis shows short - term support. Attention should be paid to the situation after the late - maturing Fuji is de - bagged and the inventory reduction progress of stored apples. The picking and bag - removing work of late Fuji is sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing time. New - season apples in Shandong have a large price range for Red Generals, and the prices of pre - harvested Fuji are higher than last year. The sales of stored apples in Shandong have slowed down significantly [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The current inventory level is low, and the price has bottom support. The high price of high - quality new - season apples affects the sales of stored apples, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10780 yuan/ton, a change of + 45 yuan/ton or + 0.42% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ01 - 1280, a change of - 45 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the Aksu area, the mainstream mu - yield is 700 - 800 kg, and the jujubes are in the sugar - increasing period. In the Kashgar area, a small number of jujubes have started to wrinkle. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks of red dates have arrived, and the prices are stable. Different grades of red dates have different price ranges [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price closed higher yesterday. The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei in the spot market remained the same as before. The replenishment of merchants in sales areas is carried out as needed, and the double - festival stocking has not started significantly. The current basis has further narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of production - area weather on supply, the release of consumption - end stocking momentum, and the realization of futures long - term expectations. The 2024 production season of red dates had large output and high inventory but poor quality. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with inventory pressure still present. The new - season jujube trees may have over - exhaustion problems, and the expected output reduction is strong [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The jujubes in the Xinjiang main production area are in the sugar - increasing stage. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production area on the quality of new - season jujubes. If the subsequent dynamic assessment of yield and quality is lower than expected, the upward trend of red date prices may continue. The demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking also needs attention [8]