甲醇日报：内地成交仍可-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The inventory build - up in ports has slowed down, and the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing has supported the recovery of port demand. However, the arrival pressure persists, and the high - inventory pressure at ports may continue in October, with the port basis remaining weak. The subsequent change mainly depends on when the Iranian winter inspection plan is announced. The Iranian methanol production rate is still high, and the planned shipping volume from September to October is still significant. The supply pressure from non - Iranian sources has decreased due to the Ma'anshan Oil refinery maintenance. The lower support at ports still relies on the window for methanol to flow back to the inland [2]. - In the inland, the transactions in the northwest are still good, and mainstream CTO factories are still purchasing methanol. The coal - based methanol production rate will gradually increase in the second half of the month. The rate of rebuilding the low - level inventory of inland methanol factories is still slow, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory of acetic acid has dragged down its production rate, the improvement in MTBE exports has led to a low - level recovery of its production rate, and the production rate of formaldehyde has remained stable [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference of Taicang methanol (excluding additional points), and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][30][34] III. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P production rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall methanol production rate in China (including integrated plants) [37][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream industries, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][56]