国贸期货日度策略参考-20250924

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium [1] - Bearish: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, LPG [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Most other commodities including various metals, agricultural products, and energy - related products [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but there is a low probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest - rate risk warning from the central bank restrains the upward movement [1]. - For most commodities, market sentiment is changeable, and it is necessary to pay attention to domestic and foreign policy changes. The end - of - year demand season and supply - side factors such as production, inventory, and mine quota approvals have a significant impact on prices [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral upward trend before National Day, control positions [1] - Treasury Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restrains upward movement [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term likely to be strong, but beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - Copper: Price is under pressure after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside due to the coming consumption season [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - Zinc: Social inventory increase pressures the price, back to fundamentals after macro events [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Short - term oscillation may be strong, affected by Indonesian mine quotas and raw material prices, operate short - term and light - position for the holiday [1] - Tin: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] - TV Silicon and Polysilicon: Affected by supply resumption, production cut expectations, and market sentiment [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Ferrous Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1] - Manganese Silicate and Silicon Iron: Negative short - term fundamentals, supply recovery, potential demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - Plate: Supply surplus pressure persists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price under pressure [1] - Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp callback, the bottom is supported, and the short - term may oscillate, consider reducing long positions [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil: Palm oil may be long at low levels in the oscillation range; soybean oil is bullish in the long - term; rapeseed oil shows a de - stocking trend, recommend long and positive spreads between months [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range oscillation, potential pressure after new cotton is launched [1] - Raw Sugar: Bottom - out rebound, limited upside due to supply surplus, consider shorting at high levels [1] - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing plants [1] - Soybean Meal: Weak market sentiment in the short - term, be cautious and watch for changes in premium and discount quotes [1] - Paper Pulp and Logs: Paper pulp shows an initial bottom range, no significant bullish drivers; logs have stable fundamentals, futures oscillate [1] - Live Hogs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut [1] - Asphalt: Bearish as the demand may be falsified in the 14th Five - Year Plan period and supply is sufficient [1] - Natural Rubber (RU and BR): RU may be affected by typhoons and inventory reduction; BR is affected by raw - material supply and market sentiment [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, etc.: PTA is bearish due to supply increase and price decline; ethylene glycol is affected by new device production and inventory; short - fiber is affected by device return and market sentiment [1] - Pure Benzene, Styrene, and Urea: Bearish for pure benzene and styrene due to supply increase; urea has limited upside and cost - side support [1] - LPG: Bearish due to OPEC production increase, high domestic inventory, and Fed rate - cut [1] Others - Container Shipping (European Line): May rebound from low levels as the price approaches the cost line and enters the contract - changing period [1]