集运日报：现货运价下跌不止，多头情绪出尽，盘面再度下行，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate is continuously falling, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the market has declined again. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not advisable to hold positions stubbornly [4]. - In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic, with large fluctuations. The core of the movement is the trend of the spot freight rate. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index Changes - On September 22, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 13.24% to 783.71 points, the SCFIS (European route) dropped 12.9% to 1254.92 points, the NCFI (European route) dropped 7.65% to 673.61 points, the SCFIS (US West route) dropped 11.6% to 1193.64 points, and the NCFI (US West route) dropped 23.30% to 944.89 points [3]. - On September 19, compared with the previous period, the SCFl announced price dropped 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points, the SCFI European route price dropped 8.8% to 1052 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) dropped 6.2% to 1537.28 points, the SCFI US West route dropped 31.0% to 1636 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) dropped 2.2% to 757.45 points [3]. Economic Data - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI initial value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, reaching the highest level since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the service PMI initial value was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Market and Contract Information - On September 23, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 28,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 4522 lots from the previous day [4]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On September 23, local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a ship heard an explosion about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen. The ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [4]. - Australia, Canada, and the UK announced the recognition of the State of Palestine. Since the new round of the Israel - Palestine conflict in October 2023, Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have caused more than 60,000 Palestinian deaths, and the international community's call for the implementation of the "two - state solution" has increased [4].