原油日报：俄罗斯考虑禁止柴油出口-20250924

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to continuous drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russian diesel exports have dropped below 700,000 barrels per day, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have soared. Russia is considering a diesel export ban, which may only target non - producers' exports (10% of total diesel exports), and will support European diesel crack spreads, keeping them high in Q4 [2]. - Oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and mid - term short positions [3]. 3. Key Points by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.13 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.81% increase; Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose by $1.06 to $67.63 per barrel, a 1.59% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 1.47% to 482 yuan per barrel [1]. - Trump said at the UN General Assembly that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs, called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia, and urged the UN to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US [1]. - The OECD predicts that global economic growth will be 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). US economic growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 (previously 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged) [1]. - Russia may extend the gasoline export ban and is discussing the possibility of a diesel export ban [1]. Investment Logic - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have led to large - scale refinery shutdowns, a significant drop in Russian diesel exports, and soaring domestic fuel prices. Russia's potential diesel export ban will support European diesel crack spreads [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will move in a range; Mid - term: Short positions are recommended. Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].