化工日报：旺季不旺，聚酯产业链偏弱运行-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it gives a neutral rating with a mid - term cautious and bearish outlook for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly during the peak season. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating, and the PX supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the demand side of the polyester industry has limited improvement and high inventory [1][2][4]. - The demand for PF has slightly improved, and short - term supply and demand conditions are better than the raw material side, but its upward momentum is weak. The processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 79 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 5 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 159 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 304 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main - contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main - contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 212 dollars/ton (with a环比 change of - 6.88 dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][18][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas start - up will further increase in the short term. China's PTA load is rising from a low level. Relevant figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [1][29][36]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [2][37][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a环比 change of - 0.2%), and it is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. Relevant figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [2][49][65]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 230 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 21 yuan/ton), and the load is slightly increasing. Relevant figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [3][76][89]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 497 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 23 yuan/ton). Relevant figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [3][91][104]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and cautiously bearish in the medium term [4]. - Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5]. - Cross - period: None [5].