钴：刚果金配额政策落地，中长期逻辑夯实

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The temporary export control has been extended until October 15, 2025, which may impact market expectations and inventory depletion pace [2][3] - The quota system will be implemented starting October 16, with specific conditions and distribution methods to be outlined in a forthcoming resolution [2] - The total quota is set at 96,600 tons for 2026, significantly lower than last year's export volume of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a potential supply-demand tight balance or even shortage in the medium to long term [3] Summary by Sections Export Policy Changes - The export suspension period has been extended to October 15, 2025 [2] - A quota system will be introduced, with specific details to be communicated to market participants [2] Market Outlook - The quota volume is only 96,600 tons, a 56% reduction compared to last year's export, leading to a potential supply shortage [3] - Current industry chain inventory is approximately four months, which could exacerbate supply tightness if any segment holds excess stock [3] - Uncertainty regarding the distribution of future quotas and limited short-term supply from Indonesia's MHP further complicates the outlook [3] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, focus on companies not affected by the Congo (DRC) policy, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which have quality nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia [4] - In the long term, companies with substantial resource reserves and leading production capacity in the DRC will have a competitive advantage post-quota implementation [4]