农林牧渔行业报告（2025.9.15-2025.9.21）：猪价再创年内新低，“反内卷”再加码

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig and poultry markets, is experiencing significant price declines, with the agricultural index dropping 2.70% last week, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [3][12] - The report highlights concerns regarding the ability to reduce pig production capacity, which has led to market volatility and price pressures [4][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is being reinforced, aiming to stabilize pig prices in the future, with recent meetings indicating stricter measures for production capacity reduction [20][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector faced a substantial decline, with the agricultural index down 2.70%, while the broader market indices fell less significantly [12][14] - Core agricultural segments, including pigs and poultry, saw notable price drops, raising concerns about production capacity adjustments [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pigs - As of September 21, the average price of pigs was 12.69 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [4][17] - The report indicates that the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to significant supply pressure, particularly in Q4 [17][20] - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned to losses, with an average loss of 24 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 199 yuan per head [18] Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks has shown a slight rebound, reaching 3.5 yuan/chick, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand [5][28] - The average price of broiler meat remains stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, but overall demand has not improved significantly [28] - The report notes a significant decrease in the number of grandparent stock updated, which could impact future supply dynamics [28] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted to 5905 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [32] - The price of imported Brazilian soybeans stands at 3987 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.4% decrease [32] - Cotton prices have slightly increased to 15300 yuan/ton, while corn prices have decreased to 2325 yuan/ton [32]