Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly. The price of London gold broke through the $3,700 per ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold futures broke through the 85 yuan per gram mark, both hitting new all - time highs. Silver prices also rose, but the short - term upward momentum slowed down [4][5]. - In the short term, precious metal prices will remain high and strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices due to potential increased volatility during the National Day holiday [5]. - In the long term, factors such as the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, the unsustainable US debt, and the intensification of great - power competition will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit, and the central banks' gold purchases will continue. Therefore, the long - term price center of gold is likely to move upward [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On September 23, compared with September 22, London gold spot rose 1.0% to $3,752.14 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.1% to $43.74 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.0% to $3,786.20 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.3% to $44.11 per ounce, AU2510 rose 1.1% to 851.92 yuan per gram, AG2510 rose 0.2% to 10,306 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 1.1% to 849.90 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.3% to 10,279 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Price Spreads/Ratios: From September 22 to September 23, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 2.5 yuan per gram to - 2.02 yuan per gram, a change of - 19.2%; the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 31 yuan per kilogram to - 27 yuan per kilogram, a change of - 12.9%; the gold's internal - external spread (TD - London) changed from - 8.56 yuan per gram to - 7.29 yuan per gram, a change of - 14.9%; the silver's internal - external spread (TD - London) changed from - 914 yuan per kilogram to - 895 yuan per kilogram, a change of - 2.0%; the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 0.8% to 82.66; the COMEX gold - silver ratio rose 0.7% to 85.85; the spread between AU2512 - 2510 rose 0.6% to 3.52 yuan per gram; the spread between AG2512 - 2510 rose 26.5% to 43 yuan per kilogram [3]. Position Data - Non - commercial Positions in COMEX: As of September 16 (weekly data), compared with September 19, the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold increased 0.59% to 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 4.38% to 60,368 contracts, and the net long positions increased 1.78% to 266,410 contracts; the non - commercial long positions in COMEX silver decreased 1.14% to 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 8.49% to 20,085 contracts, and the net long positions decreased 4.45% to 51,538 contracts [3]. - ETF Positions: From September 19 to September 22, the gold ETF - SPDR position increased 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position increased 1.08% to 15,368.89554 tons [3]. Inventory Data - SHFE Inventory: From September 22 to September 23, the SHFE gold inventory increased 2.76% to 59,013 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 0.04% to 1,149,043 kilograms [3]. - COMEX Inventory: From September 19 to September 22, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.56% to 39,682,786 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.06% to 524,378,224 troy ounces [3]. Market Review and Analysis - Market Review: On September 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.99% to 85.44 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.78% to 10,349 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Logic Analysis: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the market continued to bet on two more rate cuts this year. The potential government "shutdown" and the cryptocurrency market turmoil increased market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a strong rise in precious metal prices. Silver's short - term upward momentum slowed down. In the short term, precious metal prices will remain high, but investors should be cautious about increased volatility. In the long term, gold's price center is likely to move upward [5].
贵金属数据日报-20250924
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-24 06:10