镍与不锈钢日评：低位震荡-20250924

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 23, the Shanghai nickel main contract oscillated at a low level, with trading volume of 52,899 thousand (-13,200) and open interest of 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME nickel rose 0.83%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Considering the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals increased, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel-iron plants narrowed, domestic production in September increased, as did Indonesia's production, and nickel-iron inventories decreased. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased. With the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - On September 23, the stainless steel main contract oscillated within a range, with trading volume of 139,017 lots (+402) and open interest of 123,891 lots (-6,126). The spot market saw fair trading at low prices, and the basis premium widened. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300-series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices rose, as did high-carbon ferrochrome prices. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost end provides support and inventory pressure is not significant, so prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - Futures Prices: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near-month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 120,730 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,100 yuan/ton, and 121,340 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price was 15,415 dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,340 dollars, and the on - site closing price was 15,354 dollars, with increases compared to the previous day [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Shanghai nickel's trading volume was 52,899 thousand (-13,200), and open interest was 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME 3 - month nickel's trading volume was 5,176 lots (+1,152) [2]. - Inventory: SHFE nickel inventories decreased, while LME nickel inventories increased. SMM China port nickel ore total inventories were 9.71 million wet tons (+180,000), SMM Shanghai bonded area nickel inventories decreased by 600 tons, and SMM pure nickel social inventories increased [2]. - Price Spreads: The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and SHFE nickel active contract closing price was 1,220 yuan/ton (-80). The price spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [2]. Stainless Steel Market - Futures Prices: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel's near - month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 12,785 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,990 yuan/ton respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous day [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless steel was 139,017 lots (+402), and open interest was 123,891 lots (-6,126) [2]. - Inventory: SHFE stainless steel inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900) [2]. - Price Spreads: The basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and active contract was 20 yuan/ton, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. Market News - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) has imposed sanctions on 25 nickel mining companies in Southeast Sulawesi. A total of 190 general mining licenses were suspended, and the sanctions include a suspension of mining activities for up to 60 days. Once companies submit reclamation plans and necessary guarantees, the sanctions will be lifted [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: Short on rallies [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to wait and see [2].