航运衍生品数据日报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend. The suspension of cargo movement at the Kazakh border, potential opening of the Polish border, cancellation of voyages during the Golden Week, and fluctuations in booking volumes and tariffs are all influencing the market. The key variable remains tariffs, and the situation may deteriorate further if the tariff suspension period ends [8]. - The EC market is in a weak and volatile state. The unchanged MSK10 October second - week freight rate opening price has increased the expectation of a halt in price decline [9]. - In the European shipping market, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. The shipping companies' "rolling pool" strategy during the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. The off - season reduction in ships has limited impact on the market [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped to 1198, a decrease of 14.31% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1120, a 0.45% decline. SCFI - West America dropped 30.97% to 1636, SCFIS - West America fell 11.56% to 1193, SCFI - East America decreased 22.68% to 2557, and SCFI - Northwest Europe dropped 8.84% to 1052. SCFIS - Northwest Europe declined 17.15% to 1193, and SCFI - Mediterranean fell 5.75% to 1638 [6]. - Contract Data: Most shipping futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased 2.28% to 1421.3, EC2608 dropped 1.03% to 1592.5. Some contract positions changed, with EC2608's position increasing by 14 to 501, while EC2410's position decreased by 4522 to 41508 [6][7]. 3.2 Market News - Cargo movement at the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to a disagreement between the Kazakh and Russian governments on the customs union agreement. The Polish border may open this Tuesday or Wednesday or by the end of this month. MSC has canceled 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, with the capacity of the Pacific route reduced by about 14% and the Asia - Europe route by about 17%. In early September, China - US booking volumes decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and US - China booking volumes dropped by 18% [8]. 3.3 EC Market - The EC market is in a weak and volatile state. The unchanged MSK10 October second - week freight rate opening price has increased the expectation of a halt in price decline [9]. 3.4 Spot Price - This week, the Gemini October upper - half price dropped to 1500, QA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [10]. 3.5 Strategy - A positive spread strategy for the 10 - 12 period is recommended [11].