能源化策略：地缘再次扰动油价，化?超跌有反弹需求

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report doesn't provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "shock - weakening", with a few in "shock" status [3][6][8][11][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and the supply pressure on crude oil continues. The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the market is worried about Russia's crude oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the later period will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases [1][6]. - Most chemical trade data shows that imports of most varieties have declined year - on - year, while imports of methanol, PX, and pure benzene have increased. Exports of PVC, PE, PP, and styrene have performed well. The chemical chain valuation has been slightly compressed recently, and the rebound of crude oil may trigger the replenishment demand of the industrial chain, leading to the stabilization of chemical product prices [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the pattern of shock and consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and supply pressure continues. - Main Logic: Overnight oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation are still fermenting, supporting the bottom of the range. API data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases in the later period. - Outlook: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical disturbances [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has declined rapidly. - Main Logic: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices but limited increase in asphalt futures prices and compressed profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has decreased rapidly, and the planned asphalt production in October has increased by 19% year - on - year. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical disturbances drive the sharp rise of fuel oil futures prices. - Main Logic: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate due to factors such as the increase in import tariffs, weak gasoline in the US, and low refinery operating rates. - Outlook: Geopolitical escalation will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the pressure level of 3500 is effective in the short term. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - Outlook: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates following crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - Viewpoint: The increase in external procurement in the inland area boosts the methanol futures price to fluctuate. - Main Logic: The methanol futures price fluctuated on September 23. The increase in the external procurement demand of some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has supported the price. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is still large in the near - term. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - term, some funds still bet at low prices. - Outlook: Short - term shock [21]. 3.1.6 Urea - Viewpoint: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the futures price continues to be under pressure along the cost line. - Main Logic: On September 23, the daily production and operating rate on the supply side remained high, the demand side lacked strong support, and the export expectation was weakening. - Outlook: The fundamentals of supply and demand remain loose. Before the festival, the demand is mainly for order collection, and the downstream transactions are moderately promoted. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for other positive factors [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Viewpoint: The downstream demand support is weak, and the supply - demand margin weakens. - Main Logic: The cost side has no obvious support, and the commodity atmosphere is not good. The overall supply remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the later period. - Outlook: The price fluctuates weakly, looking for support at the lower level [15][16]. 3.1.8 PX - Viewpoint: The supply - demand margin weakens, the demand is lower than expected, and the processing fee is under pressure. - Main Logic: Oil prices fluctuate at a low level, and the atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector is not good. The supply remains high, the downstream demand is still weak, and the processing fee is still under pressure. - Outlook: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.9 PTA - Viewpoint: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - Main Logic: The cost side fluctuates weakly, and the support is insufficient. The supply maintenance increases, but it still cannot effectively suppress market liquidity. The basis is still weak, and the processing fee has not improved significantly. - Outlook: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. - Main Logic: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate and weaken, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply is stable, the downstream production and sales are tepid, and the processing fee is firm. - Outlook: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it fluctuates weakly in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - Viewpoint: The processing fee runs stably, and attention should be paid to contract negotiations. - Main Logic: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials weakens, and the absolute price of bottle - chips fluctuates and declines. The processing fee is relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the speculative replenishment demand of downstream at low prices. - Outlook: Shock - weakening, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 PP - Viewpoint: The maintenance rate increases, and PP should pay attention to the support strength at the previous low. - Main Logic: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of PP are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - Outlook: Short - term shock - weakening [26][27]. 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - Viewpoint: It fluctuates following PP, and PL fluctuates and declines in the short term. - Main Logic: Traders in the market are generally bearish on the future market. Affected by the psychology of "buying on rising, not on falling", downstream pre - festival inventory - building willingness is general, and the market trading is dull. - Outlook: PL fluctuates weakly in the short term [27]. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - Viewpoint: The downstream transactions still increase, and plastic fluctuates and declines. - Main Logic: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - Outlook: The fundamental support is limited, and it fluctuates in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The future market expectation is still pessimistic, and pure benzene returns to decline. - Main Logic: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased, and downstream had certain replenishment demand. However, after the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. Pure benzene is difficult to destock before the end of the year, and the inventory accumulation is the most obvious in October. - Outlook: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the pattern of pure benzene will return to the situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation [13][14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - Viewpoint: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and styrene resumes decline. - Main Logic: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. After the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is the high inventory of upstream and downstream, which is difficult to destock. The cost side of pure benzene also drags down the styrene price. - Outlook: The profit has reached a low level, and one can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [14][15]. 3.1.17 PVC - Viewpoint: The market sentiment has declined, and PVC should be cautiously bearish. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, but the dynamic cost has increased, and the market sentiment may recover. - Outlook: PVC fluctuates, with pressure from the medium - and long - term fundamentals and support from the increase in dynamic cost and the recovery of market sentiment [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The expectation is strong, but the reality is weak, and the market fluctuates. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of caustic soda still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The support comes from the strong expectation of caustic soda inventory - building for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026. - Outlook: It fluctuates in the medium - and long - term. The spot price is weakly stable before the festival, and the market may rebound due to the strong inventory - building expectation for alumina production in Q4. If the inventory - building expectation is realized after the festival, the market may return to the weak reality [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Cross - Period Spread: The report provides the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and change values [32]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values and change values [33]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The cross - variety spreads of different categories are presented, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with the latest values and change values [34]. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined on September 23, 2025, with declines of 0.73%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively [276]. - Energy Index: On September 23, 2025, the energy index was 1179.87, with a daily decline of 1.64%, a decline of 4.31% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.01% in the past month, and a decline of 3.91% since the beginning of the year [278].