中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数下跌，能源化工普遍下跌-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - Domestic Macro: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - Asset Views: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - Iron Ore: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Silicon Iron: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - Glass: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - Soda Ash: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - Alumina: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - Zinc: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - Lead: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - Nickel: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - Stainless Steel: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - Tin: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil/LPG: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - Asphalt: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - Methanol: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - Urea: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - PX: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - PTA: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - Short - Fiber: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - Bottle Chips: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - Propylene: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - PP: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - Plastic: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - Styrene: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - PVC: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - Caustic Soda: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - Corn/Starch: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - Pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Rubber: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - Cotton: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - Sugar: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - Pulp: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - Offset Printing Paper: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - Logs: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].