阿根廷关税政策变化，油粕遭遇重创

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Overall Industry Outlook - The report does not provide a comprehensive investment rating for the entire agricultural industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - Protein Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal): Oscillating weakly [2][6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [8] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [9] - Natural Rubber (RSS3 and TSR20): Oscillating [10][12] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating weakly in the medium - term, with short - term attention to support levels [14] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Offset Printing Paper: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17] - Logs: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. The main influencing factors include international policies (such as Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs), weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. For example, Argentina's cancellation of soybean and other grain export tariffs impacts the global and domestic markets of related products, and weather conditions affect crop yields and harvest schedules [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Protein Meal - Logic: Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs leads to a decrease in export prices and an expected increase in export volume, which is bearish for the domestic and international soybean markets. Domestically, the opening of import profit for Argentine soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil is expected to increase imports, causing short - term pressure on the domestic market. In the long run, domestic soybean meal supply may increase in Q4 2025, and the supply gap may disappear in Q1 2026. On the demand side, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - Outlook: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][6]. 3.2. Corn and Starch - Logic: The price of domestic corn shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, and Argentina's cancellation of corn export tariffs also affects market sentiment. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over inventory, presenting a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - Outlook: Oscillating. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse spread opportunities [8]. 3.3. Pigs - Logic: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's policy. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy continues to be implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will gradually weaken [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly. The price is expected to face supply pressure after the National Day, and attention can be paid to reverse spread strategies [9]. 3.4. Natural Rubber - Logic: Rubber prices are relatively resistant to decline due to favorable fundamentals, showing a pattern of strong spot prices, inventory reduction, and narrowing basis. However, due to poor commodity sentiment, it is difficult to rise independently. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply increase in the production area and the inventory reduction rate, as well as the downstream procurement willingness [12]. - Outlook: Oscillating strongly in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks in September [12]. 3.5. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The BR futures contract oscillates within a range. The overall commodity trend is weak, but natural rubber is relatively strong, supporting the BR futures. The fundamentals and price operation logic have not changed significantly recently. The price is expected to continue to oscillate between 11300 - 12300 [13]. - Outlook: Oscillating within a range in the short term [13]. 3.6. Cotton - Logic: The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the new year leads to the market trading the expected supply surplus in advance, causing the cotton price to decline. The current inventory is tight, and the demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability of the peak - season demand is questionable. The market shows a pattern of tight near - term and loose far - term supply [14]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly in the medium term. In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.7. Sugar - Logic: Zhengzhou sugar prices continue to decline, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton level. Macroeconomically, the market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long term, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 crushing season [15]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly in both the short and long term [15]. 3.8. Pulp - Logic: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level, with differences between near - term and far - term contracts. The market has both positive and negative factors, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals are still bearish, but the futures price has already factored in the negative news, and the price of bleached northern softwood kraft pulp has stabilized [16]. - Outlook: Oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3.9. Offset Printing Paper - Logic: The futures price oscillates narrowly around 4200 yuan. The short - term fundamentals have limited changes, with sufficient supply and no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. Attention should be paid to new driving factors such as publishing tenders [17]. - Outlook: Consider interval operations between 4100 - 4400 [17]. 3.10. Logs - Logic: The log futures price oscillates narrowly. The fundamentals have marginally improved, but there is no strong upward driving force. From the perspective of delivery, it has a bearish impact on the futures price [19]. - Outlook: Oscillating around 800 in the short term [19].