工业硅深度：消费久进击，蓄力乘风起

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industrial silicon industry, recommending to pay attention to related companies such as He Sheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Xingfa Group [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is at the beginning of the silicon industry chain and is a typical high-energy-consuming industry. After a previous peak, excessive new capacity led to oversupply, and the industry has reached a bottom. Future demand is expected to stabilize with steady growth in photovoltaic installations and resilient demand for organic silicon [3][10]. - On the supply side, overseas capacity growth is stagnating, and domestic small-scale capacity is expected to be phased out, which may alleviate supply-side pressure. Although inventory remains high, its growth rate is slowing down [3][10]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Industrial silicon prices have fluctuated significantly, with highs of 63,000 CNY/ton and lows around 10,000 CNY/ton. The report focuses on analyzing the supply-demand dynamics and future trends in the industry [6][16]. Product Overview - Industrial silicon, also known as metallic silicon, is a fundamental industrial raw material with applications primarily in polysilicon, organic silicon, and silicon-aluminum alloys. It is a resource-intensive and high-pollution industry, consuming approximately 12,000-13,000 kWh per ton [7][21]. Demand Side - The demand structure for industrial silicon has shifted, with polysilicon becoming the largest demand source, expected to account for 54.7% by 2024. Global industrial silicon consumption has grown from 2.44 million tons to 5.5 million tons over the past 11 years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% [28][30]. - The demand for organic silicon remains resilient, with significant growth in new application areas, while silicon-aluminum alloy demand is expected to stabilize [28][34]. Supply Side - Global industrial silicon capacity is projected to reach 8.54 million tons in 2023 and 8.81 million tons in 2024, with growth rates of 9.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Domestic capacity is expected to increase from 5.17 million tons in 2020 to 7.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.9% [8][65]. - The report indicates that small-scale production capacity will be phased out by 2025, leading to a more concentrated industry structure [8][78]. Market Conditions - The current price of industrial silicon has reached a historical low, and the industry may experience a reversal in fortunes, similar to the recovery seen in polysilicon prices [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in the industry, driven by the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector [9][10].