瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to face pressure, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. It is recommended to buy soda ash main contracts at low levels in the short term [2]. - The supply and demand of glass remain at a low level, the profit has recovered due to the increase in spot prices. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. It is recommended to buy glass main contracts at low levels in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1307 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1237 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1398447 hands, down 17058 hands; glass main contract position is 1316149 hands, up 248 hands [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 250293, up 25073; glass top 20 net position is - 87318, up 107221. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3727 tons, up 1598 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 127 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; glass basis is - 157 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 119, up 10; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 87, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 85.53%, down 1.76%; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 16.02 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.57 million tons, down 5.99 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6090.8 million heavy boxes, down 67.5 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 39801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27693.54 million square meters, up 2659.54 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The ministries jointly issued a notice on the steady growth of the building materials industry, including strict control of cement and glass production capacity, promotion of capacity replacement, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to be under pressure, but there may be changes with "anti - involution" speculation [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand remain at a low level, the profit has recovered due to the increase in spot prices. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, which may drag down glass demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2]. Prompt Attention - For soda ash, it is recommended to buy main contracts at low levels in the short term, paying attention to operation risks. For glass, it is also recommended to buy main contracts at low levels in the short term, paying attention to operation risks [2].