瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250924

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5742, up 0.88%. For the silicon ferroalloy, the macro - level sees the joint issuance of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by relevant departments. Supply has increased after profit improvement, with neutral inventory and short - term cost support. The market has a lower tender price. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 24, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5916, up 0.44%. For manganese silicon, macro - level includes diplomatic activities. Fundamentally, production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. The iron - water demand has recovered. The market has a lower final pricing. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese Silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,916.00 yuan/ton, up 34.00 yuan; SF (Silicon Ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,742.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 529,129.00 hands, down 9,301.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 369,202.00 hands, down 1,439.00 hands [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net positions were - 69,893.00 hands, down 842.00 hands; Silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net positions were - 32,705.00 hands, down 680.00 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单 was 60,014.00 sheets, up 517.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 17,779.00 sheets, up 547.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,720.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 262.00 yuan/ton, down 44.00 yuan; the SM主力合约基差 was - 196.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Guangdong issued an emergency notice on typhoon "Huajiaisha" prevention, implementing "five - stop" measures in key affected areas [2]. - US President Trump made statements on Russia - related issues, including tariff threats and NATO's response to Russian aircraft [2]. - Russia's energy ministry deputy said it might further restrict fuel exports and extended the gasoline export ban to the end of September, with possible extension to October [2]. - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongshang met with Ray Dalio, and they exchanged views on the international economic situation and financial market dynamics [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For silicon ferroalloy on September 24, the 2511 contract was at 5,742, up 0.88%. The macro - level has a steel industry plan. Supply has increased, inventory is neutral, and costs are supported. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The 9 - month Hebei Iron and Steel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on September 24, the 2601 contract was at 5,916, up 0.44%. The macro - level has diplomatic activities. Production has been rising, inventory has increased, and the port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased. Profits are negative in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group's 9 - month silicon manganese final price decreased. Technically, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2].