苹果产业日报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - long positions as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing some support at the lower end [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8336 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1735; the main contract position is 2435 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 99400 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 12211 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged; the spot price in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade second - class fruit farmer's goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, with an increase of 168.34 million tons; the average wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg. The total inventory of national apple cold storage is 16.32 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.59 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.04, with a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0, unchanged. The monthly export volume of apples is 70000 tons, with an increase of 20000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export amount of apples is 6973.9 million US dollars, and the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1589295.5 million US dollars, with a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 5.52 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.83 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg. The average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.2 vehicles, with an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market in the morning is 20.2 vehicles, and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 31.8 vehicles, with an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.96%, and that of at - the - money put options is 22.96%, with an increase of 0.75% and 0.72% respectively [2] Industry News - In the western region, large - scale bag removal of late - maturing Fuji apples is in progress, with sporadic red fruits starting to be traded, stable transaction prices, and good customer purchasing enthusiasm. In the Shandong production area, the transaction of Red General apples is basically finished, with some cold - storage supplies on the market and average trading speed. A small amount of late - maturing Fuji apples have started bag removal, and trading still needs to wait. For the new - season apples, the transaction price of Red General apples in Shandong varies widely due to quality, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious. The transaction of early - maturing Fuji apples in the western region is gradually coming to an end, and the pre - harvested Fuji apples are waiting to color. A small number of customers have started placing orders at prices higher than the same period last year. The stocking for the Double Festival is gradually advancing, the bag removal of late - maturing Fuji apples is sporadic, and rainfall in the western region may delay the large - scale bag - removal time of late - maturing Fuji apples [2] Inventory Situation - As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storages in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from the previous week. Affected by the transaction of mid - maturing varieties, the inventory turnover speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down, and the storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from the previous week [2]