Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:21Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong contracted on a month-on-month basis. The chlor-alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple sets of equipment such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise month-on-month [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet experienced cost-driven production cuts, their purchasing intention has significantly weakened. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non-aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre-National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the recent market sentiment has declined, and the sharp decline in the futures price has led to the convergence of the basis. From the fourth quarter to early next year, the commissioning of new alumina plants will still support the demand. Attention should be paid to the subsequent stocking rhythm. Technically, SH2601 should focus on the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 2500 [3]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2548 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main caustic soda contract was 112,252 lots, a decrease of 3789 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders was -8138 lots, an increase of 880 lots. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 346,437 lots, a decrease of 73,773 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2548 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2640 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Industry News Summary - From September 12th to 18th, the average national capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 81.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month-on-month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month-on-month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - As of September 18th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide increased by 6.02% month-on-month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].