Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:21Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum in the precious metals market has weakened, and there is still a need for a correction in gold prices. Geopolitical conflicts provide support for safe-haven assets, and the weakening US dollar also supports gold prices. After breaking through important thresholds, gold and silver prices may face upward resistance and increased correction pressure, with a high probability of entering a phase of consolidation. It is recommended to conduct range-bound trading and be cautious of short-term correction risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 860 yuan/gram, up 4.56; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10,397 yuan/kg, up 48. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 274,765 hands, up 3,211; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 516,112 hands, up 7,357. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 172,774 hands, down 996; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 118,982 hands, up 7,935. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 60,543 kg, up 1,530; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,161,799 kg, up 12,756 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 853.15 yuan/gram, up 5.35; the spot price of silver was 10,268 yuan/kg, up 22. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was -6.85 yuan/gram, up 0.79; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was -129 yuan/kg, down 26 [2] Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings were 1,000.57 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings were 15,469.12 tons, up 100.22. The non-commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266,410 contracts, up 4,670; the non-commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 51,538 contracts, down 2,399. The total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons per quarter, up 54.84; the total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces per year, down 21.4. The total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons per quarter, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces per year, down 47.4 [2] Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of gold was 13.65%, up 0.18; the 40-day historical volatility of gold was 11.46%, up 0.06. The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for gold was 20.35%, up 1.44; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for gold was 20.34%, up 1.43 [2] Industry News - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, and 2.9% in 2026. The economic growth forecasts of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year have been slightly raised. Several Fed officials support using an inflation target range instead of the current 2% target. There are increasing differences within the Fed on the future monetary policy path. The US current account deficit in the second quarter decreased by $188.5 billion quarter-on-quarter, reaching the lowest level since Q3 2023. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing PMI and service PMI in September were released, with the composite PMI hitting a three-month low [2]