山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factors include the phased achievement of trade agreements, concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations starting to materialize [2]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist, and Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year [2]. - The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. There has been a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the visible inventory of silver recently [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.83% [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - Data: - Prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day; London gold at $3663.15 per ounce, up 0.53%; Shanghai gold main contract at 860 yuan per gram, up 0.53%; gold T + D at 856.27 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [3]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex gold positions increased by 4.73% from the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 186.19%; Shanghai gold registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.38% [3]. - Net Position Ranking: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,314, a decrease of 3,744; the top 10 totaled 150,089, a decrease of 2,445 [4]. 3.2 Silver - Market Influencing Factors: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in visible inventory [6]. - Data: - Prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $44.27 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day; London silver at $44.33 per ounce, up 1.35%; Shanghai silver main contract at 10,397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.46%; silver T + D at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72% [7]. - Positions and Inventories: Comex silver positions increased by 3.99% from the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 32.90%; visible inventory decreased by 0.13% [7]. - Net Position Ranking: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,866, an increase of 11,247; the top 10 totaled 166,336, an increase of 10,752 [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Fed - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $66,593.66 billion, up 0.00% [9]. - Economic Indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 3.02% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 97.23, down 0.10% from the previous day [9]. - Inflation Indicators: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.20 from the previous value; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10% [11]. - Other Data: Geopolitical risk index is 128.06, up 1.97% from the previous week; VIX index is 16.50, down 0.84% from the previous day; CRB commodity index is 299.88, up 0.72% from the previous day [12]. - Fed's Interest Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different times in the future is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].