Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:17Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cost support from raw materials has strengthened as the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level recently. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and with the easing of infrastructure and real - estate demand, the confidence of stainless - steel mills is relatively strong, and it is expected that the production schedule of steel mills will increase. On the demand side, although the downstream is entering the traditional off - season, infrastructure construction is expected to speed up in October. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. The domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long with a light position on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts is - 125 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 7,775 lots, an increase of 3,492 lots. The position of the main contract is 116,704 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 88,233 tons, a decrease of 775 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of the SS main contract is 475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel output is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398,010,100 square meters, an increase of 45,950,100 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the valuation of the US stock market is quite high, and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment, without clearly stating whether to cut interest rates in October. The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September hit a two - month low, and the preliminary values of the service PMI and composite PMI both hit three - month lows, but all were above the 50 boom - bust line. The growth has slowed down from the recent peak in July, and enterprises reduced their recruitment scale in September. There are more and more signs of weakening demand, which weakens the pricing power of enterprises, implies squeezed profit margins, and is conducive to the tendency of inflation. On the raw - material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources; the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production has slowed down, and the domestic production has gradually declined [2]