瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - With a small amount of new cotton on the market, a significant increase in production in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened. Therefore, short - term operations are recommended to be bearish [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,555, up 15; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 24,486, down 5,549; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 528,292, down 4,509; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 3,716, down 199 - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,860, up 200; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 47, up 121; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,781, down 2,500; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,062, down 71; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,336, up 69; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14,181, up 34 - China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,615, unchanged; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,442, up 10; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,628, up 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,553, up 71; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 87, up 1.3 - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 7, up 2; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130,000, up 20,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 986, down 86; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 148.17, down 70.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 26.58, down 0.65; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.87, down 1.31 - Cloth production: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.01, up 0.01; yarn production: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 202.79, up 3.64 - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,414,590.4, down 101,585.5; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,239,320.2, up 78,919.3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.04; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.03 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 9.03, up 0.09; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 7.18, up 0.17 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of September 19, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1426 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1292 million tons (a decrease of 10.16%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 0.5646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0852 million tons (a decrease of 13.11%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 0.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0395 million tons (a decrease of 11.92%) - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose on Tuesday, ending a four - day losing streak, driven by strong demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.42 cents, or 0.50%, to settle at 66.64 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton grower branch surveyed the cotton growth situation and the second - estimated output of 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provincial - level regions and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The survey shows that the national estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.321 million tons from the previous period, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]