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瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250924
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - situation shows that the US September Markit manufacturing and services PMIs declined but remained in expansion, with price moderation. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment and didn't clearly state whether to cut interest rates in October. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will be in the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans phased resumption, and tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was due to multiple factors, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period with slow order recovery. Recently, as tin prices fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream and terminal enterprises was released, domestic inventory decreased, and the spot premium rose to 300 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased but the spot premium was at a low level. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, both long and short positions were cautious. It's recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position operations within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 271,650 yuan/ton, up 1,770 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin was - 410 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 34,270 US dollars/ton, up 250 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin was 10,808 lots, down 2,419 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 563 lots, down 1,142 lots. LME tin total inventory was 2,575 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 6,988 tons, down 909 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 6,342 tons, down 76 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 271,930 yuan/ton, up 1,070 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract was - 250 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 98 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees was 10,500 yuan/ton with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 258,700 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 262,700 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees was 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 176,400 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chair Powell said US stock valuations were quite high and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment without clearly stating whether to cut interest rates in October. The US September Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value hit a two - month low, and the service and composite PMI preliminary values both hit three - month lows but were above the 50 boom - bust line. Growth has slowed since the recent peak in July, and companies reduced recruitment in September [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Follow - There was no news today [3].