Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:16Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead decreased slightly, demand increased slowly, and after the market digested the Fed's news and took profits, it showed a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to buy on dips for lead prices [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the open interest was 94,814 lots, down 4,144 lots; the net position of the top 20 was 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts were 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory was 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,999 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory was 219,975 tons, down 1,700 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 lead spot price was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 lead spot price was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract was - 115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 spread was - 42.13 dollars/ton, up 3.03 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 4.55 percentage points; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 0.5 kilotons, up 1.3 kilotons; the global lead mine output was 395.9 kilotons, up 15.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries was 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 units, up 1,925 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,133.43 points, down 24.05 points; the monthly automobile output was 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2] Industry News - Fed Chair Powell was cautious about future rate cuts, and the dollar strengthened. He said there were risks in employment and inflation and avoided giving a clear signal on whether to cut rates in October. The "Fed whisperer" pointed out that Powell's remarks indicated that interest rates were still too tight, which might open the door for further rate cuts. Sino - US economic and trade negotiations made initial progress, which had a positive impact on market sentiment [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters entered the maintenance stage, the raw material market was in a tight balance, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continued to decline. The production of primary lead decreased, and the capacity release of recycled lead slowed down due to environmental inspections and low waste battery recycling efficiency. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries was stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was approaching, and the demand in emerging energy storage fields was good. However, the spot trading was average when prices rose, and downstream enterprises were still waiting and seeing [2] Prompt Attention - No news on this day [2]