瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250924

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory level of domestic methanol production enterprises has decreased, and the order backlog has increased. The overall production has slightly increased, and the inventory of inland enterprises has decreased. The port inventory has also decreased, and the overall unloading of foreign vessels has fallen short of expectations. The olefin operating rate has increased, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2351 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 28 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's holding volume is 929,200 lots, a decrease of 38,232 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 134,839 lots, an increase of 10,518 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 11,332, an increase of 2,410 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,255 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,085 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 96 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese ports is 259 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 283 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese ports and Southeast Asia is - 67 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.86 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 1.0739 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 0.4839 million tons, an increase of 23,100 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 0.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 1.7598 million tons, an increase of 657,100 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 79.91%, a decrease of 4.67 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.92%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 6.29%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 82.41%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.57%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 83.81%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 976 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 11.35%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.5%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 16.2%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.21%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 319,900 tons, a decrease of 20,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.03%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,000 tons, an increase of 39,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 16.79%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4922 million tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from the previous data. As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 84.89%, a week - on - week increase of 2.23% [2].