Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:15Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply of polysilicon remains flat while demand weakens. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high - level volatility expected. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,380 yuan/ton, up 1,120 yuan; the open interest is 111,187 lots, down 4,904 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,355 yuan, up 150 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,360 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 dollars/kg, up 0.09 dollars [2]. - Upstream: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 dollars/kg, up 0.14 dollars [2]. - Downstream: The monthly output of solar cells is 6,9857,000 kilowatts, up 347,500 kilowatts. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,900 pieces; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 pieces, up 6,914,600 pieces [2]. 3.2 Industry News - On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation. The industry has held multiple polysilicon - related events, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch and the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association. The National Standards Committee has issued a notice on soliciting opinions on 3 mandatory national standards [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term supply of polysilicon has little increase. The demand side shows that silicon wafer prices have a slight increase, but downstream enterprises are waiting and watching. Terminal demand is weak, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the photovoltaic industry chain remains unchanged. The overall market is expected to be in a high - level volatile state [2].