Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the oil and fat industry dated September 24, 2025, focusing on the analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil markets [2][3] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8310, 8430, and 8280 respectively, with basis of 330, 210, and 180, and the 2601 contract closed at 8100 with a gain of 14 [3] - Palm oil spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9046, 9126, and 9226 respectively, with basis of -80, 0, and 100, and the 2601 contract closed at 9126 with a gain of 72 [3] - Rapeseed oil spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 10171, 10141, and 10141 respectively, with basis of 250, 220, and 220, and the 2601 contract closed at 9921 with a loss of 75 [3] Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 monthly spread for soybean oil is 248 with a gain of 10, for palm oil is 182 with a loss of 16, and for rapeseed oil is 484 with a loss of 45 [3] Cross - Variety Spread - The 01 contract Y - P spread is -1026 with a loss of 89, OI - Y spread is 1821, and OI - P spread is 795 with a loss of 147, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.76 with a gain of 0.003 [3] Import Profit - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia has a negative profit of -230 with a CNF price of 1090 for the 10 - week ship, and the Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil has a negative profit of -559 with a FOB price of 1065 for the 10 - week ship [3] Weekly Commercial Inventory - As of the 38th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 123.6 million tons, palm oil is 58.5 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 58.6 million tons [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Industry analyst Dorab Mistry said that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% to 5500 ringgit per ton in Q1 next year due to increased biodiesel consumption in Indonesia and productivity decline in plantations [5] Domestic Market - Palm oil futures closed slightly higher. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 8.79% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and light - position long trials can be considered [5] - Soybean oil futures closed slightly higher. Last week, the soybean crushing volume was 236.04 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the national commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 113.9% year - on - year. Long trials can be considered after the negative sentiment fades [6][8] - Rapeseed oil futures closed slightly lower. Last week, the coastal crushing volume was 4.8 million tons. As of September 19, 2025, the coastal inventory decreased by 3.93% week - on - week. China's August import volume increased by 18.7% year - on - year. The inventory continues to decline, which supports the price [8] Group 4: Trading Strategy Unilateral - The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and long trials can be considered after the sentiment fades [10] Arbitrage - Wait and see [10] Options - Consider selling put - type strategies during pullbacks [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from 2016 - 2025 [13][16]
银河期货油脂日报-20250924
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:37