瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record - high of 16.814 billion bushels, and the ending stocks will also reach the highest level in seven years. With the progress of US corn harvest, the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, the early harvest results are mixed, leading to an expectation of a possible downward adjustment in US corn production. In the domestic market, the new grain harvest area in Liaoning and Heilongjiang in the Northeast region is expanding, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is high. As the supply of new corn increases, the downstream demand is relatively weak, the losses of deep - processing enterprises are intensifying, and the purchase price has been lowered. The new - season corn listing still restricts the futures market [2]. - For corn starch, the market is currently weak, and enterprises are still in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is generally low. Due to a slight improvement in pre - holiday demand, the inventory continues to decline. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a weekly decrease of 61,000 tons, a weekly decline of 5.08%, a monthly decline of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of tapioca starch and wheat starch are still significant, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although there has been a slight rebound at low levels recently, the demand support is insufficient, and the corn starch market maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures was 2,469 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn was 425.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents. The net long non - commercial position of CBOT corn decreased by 36,169 contracts, and the total position increased by 51,949 contracts [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2,164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 251 contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 20 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2,357.25 yuan/ton, up 0.78 yuan; the average price of imported corn was 1,939.55 yuan/ton, down 0.47 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun was 2,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 425.26 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields were 35.89 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 1.5 million tons respectively [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports decreased by 55,000 tons to 601,000 tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory decreased by 147,000 tons to 2.34 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 15,940 tons, an increase of 1,440 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 29.272 million tons, and the corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption decreased by 1,100 tons to 115,630 tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 50.31% [2]. - The starch enterprise operating rate increased by 2.21 percentage points to 50.36%, and the corn starch processing profit in Hebei was 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The historical volatility of corn in 20 days was 10%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 22, the grain export volume of Ukraine in the 2025/26 season was 5.82 million tons, higher than 5.251 million tons a week ago but lower than 9.764 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - Private exporters reported selling 122,947 tons of US corn to Mexico, with 100,593 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season and 22,354 tons in the 2026/27 season [2].