生猪日报：出栏压力略有好转，现货小幅震荡-20250924

Report Overview - Report Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to persist, and the subsequent spot prices are likely to remain weak. The futures market also faces certain pressure, with the overall price trend expected to be downward [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country showed an overall oscillating trend. The average price remained unchanged at 12.38 yuan/kg. The prices in most regions showed only slight fluctuations, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Futures Price - Futures prices showed a small rebound. LH01 rose by 130 yuan to 13,345 yuan, LH03 rose by 120 yuan to 12,755 yuan, LH05 rose by 75 yuan to 13,160 yuan, LH07 rose by 140 yuan to 13,860 yuan, LH09 remained unchanged at 12,600 yuan, and LH11 rose by 65 yuan to 12,730 yuan [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices decreased by 22 yuan to 236 yuan this week, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1,588 yuan [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 41.29 yuan to - 24.44 yuan, and the profit for purchasing piglets decreased by 37.38 yuan to - 199.31 yuan [4]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 1,071 heads to 155,064 heads [4]. Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased by 0.01 yuan to 0.34 yuan, the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan to 0.13 yuan, the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan to 0.1 yuan, and the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.03 yuan to 0.23 yuan [4]. Market Analysis - The supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to remain high. Although the scale enterprise's slaughter volume has slightly decreased, it is still at a high level. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to slaughter has decreased compared with the previous period, but the pressure has increased due to the relatively large inventory. The inventory of secondary fattening has decreased, and the recent entry has increased as the price has fallen to a low level. The slaughter weight of live pigs remains high, and the supply of large - weight pigs may continue to increase [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for LH15. - Options: Hold off on trading. [7]