银河期货粕类日报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center of the soybean system is expected to decline. The domestic supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is relatively loose, and the market will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to short soybean meal at high points, conduct M11 - 1 positive arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle options strategy [4][5][9][10]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market oscillated. Due to Argentina's export tariff cut, soybean export pressure increased, but the market reaction was limited. Domestic soybean meal's decline narrowed today after a significant drop yesterday, while rapeseed meal's decline widened. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened, and the inter - monthly spreads of both continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: The ending stocks of the old - crop balance sheet were slightly raised. The new - crop supply increased slightly due to a slight increase in planted area, offsetting a small decrease in yield per unit. If exports do not improve, the market may face downward pressure, and the upside is also limited [5]. - South American Soybeans: The supply - demand of South American old - crop soybeans is relatively loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazil's farmers' slow selling progress may keep prices under pressure, although there is optimism about future exports [5]. - International Soybean Meal: The supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in the crush volume of major producing areas, while imports of major importing countries only increase slightly [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic supply of soybean meal is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and inventories. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure remains, although the deep - decline space is limited [4][7]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiations lacked clear macro - guidance. The market is concerned about supply uncertainties, but the demand for US soybeans in the long - term may prevent a sharp decline in prices [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - Argentina's tariff cut brings uncertainties. If more soybeans are exported, the pressure will be obvious. The international soybean market supply is loose, and the upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal has inventory pressure, and the inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face further downward pressure [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short soybean meal at high points. - Arbitrage: M11 - 1 positive arbitrage. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [10]. 3.6 Soybean Crush Profit - The crush profit varies by origin and shipping date. Argentina's November shipment has a positive change in crush profit, while Brazil's crush profit shows different trends depending on the shipping month [11].