螺纹热卷日报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by multiple factors. Although the overall steel inventory is still accumulating, the accumulation rate is slowing down, and the apparent demand is accelerating to recover. The iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China may affect construction site demand, but the demand may recover after the festival as the weather cools down, and steel may enter an inventory inflection point. However, there is a lack of upward drive currently, and there may be a risk of decline around the holiday. If the downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Related Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian螺纹is priced at 3250 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye螺纹is 3180 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang热卷is 3400 yuan (+10), and Tianjin Hegang热卷is 3320 yuan (-10) [6]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to close out previous long positions to take profits [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the short position on the卷螺差[8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Important Information - As of September 23, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 59.54%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The non - housing project fund availability rate was 61.34%, up 0.13 percentage points week - on - week, and the housing project fund availability rate was 50.99%, up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week [8]. - In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to August, 21,700 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation. Hebei, Liaoning, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have all started the work [10]. Related Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those related to螺纹and热卷contract basis, spreads, profit margins, and cost differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14][16][18].