钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪弱稳，钢矿延续震荡-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing reduced volume and stable open interest. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar have temporarily improved, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain, continuing to pressure steel prices. The relatively good news is the rising cost. Before the holiday, steel prices will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to changes in open interest [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.24%, showing reduced volume and stable open interest. Currently, the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply-demand pattern has weakened, and inventories have increased again, continuing to pressure coil prices. The relatively good news is the rising cost. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Pay attention to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily increase of 0%, showing reduced volume and open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, providing support for ore prices, but the demand benefits are weakening, and the supply pressure is rising. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive for high-valued ore prices is not strong. Before the holiday, the trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Be cautious of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2%, up from 2.9% predicted in June, while keeping the 2026 forecast unchanged at 2.9%. Both figures are lower than the 3.3% growth rate in 2024. However, the OECD warned that the economic outlook still faces significant risks due to high policy uncertainty and high tariffs [6]. - From January to August 2025, 2.17 million urban old residential areas were newly renovated across the country, with some regions such as Hebei, Liaoning, and Chongqing having completed all planned projects [7]. - On September 23, 2025, South Korea decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot-rolled coils originating from China and Japan. The duty rate for Chinese exporters and producers is 33.10%, and for Japanese producers/exports, it is 31.58 - 33.57%. The measure will be effective for four months until January 22, 2026 [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,250, 3,230, and 3,306 respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,400, 3,320, and 3,438 respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 3,030, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 150, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,100 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 795, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 798. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 10.77 and 24.84 respectively. The SGX swap price is 105.69, and the Platts index is 106.20 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,164, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume is 1,205,152, a decrease of 85,224, and the open interest is 1,882,224, an increase of 812 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,357, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The trading volume is 467,774, a decrease of 181,592, and the open interest is 1,367,761, an increase of 668 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 803.5, with a daily increase of 0%. The trading volume is 202,421, a decrease of 87,266, and the open interest is 539,059, a decrease of 7,511 [11]. 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply-demand pattern has improved. The weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 11.96 tons. However, the current inventory is higher than in previous years, and the improvement in downstream demand is uncertain. Before the holiday, steel prices will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to changes in open interest [37]. - For hot-rolled coils, the supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 1.35 tons, while the demand is weakening, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 4.34 tons. The supply-demand pattern has weakened, and inventories have increased. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Pay attention to the demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the demand is currently good, with the daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increasing slightly. However, the demand benefits are weakening, and the supply pressure is rising. Before the holiday, the trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Be cautious of the intensification of industrial contradictions [38].