BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-09-24 09:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Accumulate" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and the introduction of stable growth policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and potentially support steel prices if the fundamentals continue to improve [4][5]. - For copper, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is becoming more pronounced, with expectations of a strong copper price if downstream demand continues to improve [4][46]. - Aluminum prices may also be supported by improving downstream demand and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4][52]. - Gold prices are expected to stabilize if the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index shows signs of slowing down, with long-term attention on the Fed's interest rate path [4][59]. - The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is likely to strengthen cobalt prices in the short term [4][20]. - The rare earth market is expected to see price fluctuations due to weak seasonal demand, with attention on international trade policies affecting exports [4][5]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan" targeting an average annual growth of 4% in value added for the steel industry over the next two years [22]. - The plan includes ten specific measures focusing on consumption peak, supply quality improvement, industry transformation, effective consumption expansion, and deepening open cooperation [22]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in steel demand due to construction material consumption, while supply has decreased slightly, leading to a marginal improvement in the market [22][23]. Copper Industry - The copper market is showing signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased operating rates in domestic copper rod enterprises [45][46]. - The supply side remains stable, and the copper price is expected to be supported if demand continues to improve [46][49]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is benefiting from improved downstream demand and stable production costs, with expectations of price support from the Fed's easing policies [52][53]. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators, with potential price support if inflation data shows signs of slowing [59][60]. Cobalt and Rare Earths - The cobalt market is facing supply constraints due to export restrictions from the DRC, while the rare earth market is experiencing price volatility amid weak demand [4][20].