A股市场2025年四季度投资策略报告：流动性增量过程延续，关注政策及产业亮点-20250924

Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation - The export sector is facing marginal decline, with August exports growing by 4.4%, down 2.7 percentage points from July, influenced by high base effects and previous "export rush" effects [9][16] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5%, showing a marginal decline of 1.1 percentage points, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0% and manufacturing investment by 5.1% [11][12] - Social retail sales from January to August grew by 4.6%, with August showing a monthly growth of 3.4%, indicating a decline in consumer confidence and spending [14][16] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction within the year, indicating a trend towards increased overseas liquidity [18][23] - Domestic liquidity remains balanced and loose, with the average DR007 rate declining by approximately 14 basis points compared to the second quarter [21][23] - The overall macro liquidity in China is expected to remain ample, despite potential short-term constraints on new policy measures [17][23] Group 3: Capital Market Liquidity - A-share market liquidity is expected to continue increasing, driven by the inflow of medium to long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies and public funds [51] - The proportion of ordinary equity funds outperforming their benchmark indices has risen to 61%, indicating improved performance and attractiveness of equity investments [31] - Financing balances have increased to 2.39 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 559.9 billion yuan, although growth rates may slow down in the future [38][51] Group 4: Market Strategy - The A-share market has shown structural characteristics, with technology sectors leading the recovery and valuation adjustments [53][59] - The focus for future investments will be on the flow of incremental funds, particularly in sectors with structural performance highlights, such as technology [59][60] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and potential year-end policies are expected to boost market risk appetite and lead to upward index movements [59][60]