银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. Macroscopically, Powell's remarks suggest a tight interest - rate environment, and Fed officials' statements impact the market. Fundamentally, copper concentrate supply is tight, and consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" pattern [4]. - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. Domestic and international spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to increase, intensifying the oversupply situation [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum market shows short - term shock and stabilization. After the decline in aluminum prices, downstream提货 sentiment has increased, and social inventories have slightly decreased [20]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable with a slightly upward trend. Downstream demand is recovering, and enterprises are stocking up in advance [27]. - The zinc market may show short - term range - bound fluctuations. Although domestic refined zinc may be in a slightly oversupplied state in September, overseas de - stocking and the Back structure of LME0 - 3 may support zinc prices [35]. - The lead market is expected to maintain high - level shock. The supply of lead ingots may increase, and downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the National Day holiday [42]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range shock trend. The impact of Indonesian policies on nickel ore supply is limited, and LME inventory is expected to continue to increase [45]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a shock trend. Although production has increased in September, demand has not shown a seasonal peak, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [53]. - The tin market is expected to maintain high - level shock. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, with short - term supply showing some improvement [60]. - The industrial silicon market suggests taking long positions. The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [66]. - The polysilicon market suggests taking long positions after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted - sales background [70]. - The lithium carbonate market shows wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and weak downstream stocking enthusiasm [75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Copper: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,960 yuan/ton, up 0.03%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 2,833 lots to 463,900 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2]. - Alumina: The alumina 2601 contract rose 8 yuan to 2,907 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 12,071 lots to 431,700 lots. Spot prices in various regions declined [9]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20,705 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 4,416 lots to 496,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 106 lots to 18,605 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell 0.43% to 21,860 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 3,546 lots to 253,800 lots. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell 0.35% to 17,065 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 4,144 lots to 94,800 lots. Spot prices declined slightly [38]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 rose 280 to 121,450 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 3,672 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [44]. - Stainless Steel: The main SS2511 contract fell 10 to 12,895 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 3,317 lots. Spot prices were in a certain range [52]. - Tin: The main contract Shanghai tin 2510 closed at 271,650 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan/ton or 0.52%, and positions decreased by 886 lots to 51,173 lots. Spot prices rebounded, and trading was mainly for rigid demand [56]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures main contract fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,020 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. Spot prices remained stable [63]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures main contract rose with position reduction, closing at 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%. Spot prices remained stable [68]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main 2511 contract fell 580 to 72,880 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 10,199 lots. Spot prices remained unchanged [74]. Relevant Information - Copper: On September 23, Hudbay Minerals' Constancia copper mine in Peru temporarily closed its concentrator due to safety issues, but it is expected not to affect this year's output [3]. - Alumina: The spot price of alumina continued to be under pressure, and the CIF price of bauxite from Guinea decreased. In August 2025, the import and export volume of alumina changed significantly [10][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The euro - zone's September manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range, and the US September Markit manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the import and export volume of aluminum ingots changed in August [18][19]. - Zinc: As of September 22, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. Affected by Typhoon "Huajiacha", the operating rate of zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong is expected to decline [32][34]. - Lead: As of September 22, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and a small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China resumed production [39]. - Nickel: Indonesia imposed penalties on some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban [45]. - Stainless Steel: Affected by Typhoon "Huajiacha", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures. After Yelian's anti - dumping investigation, the import volume of stainless steel decreased significantly in August [53]. - Tin: The US secondary tin producer Nathan Trotter started construction on its Tin Ridge smelter, and an Indonesian miner plans to increase tin ore production next year [58][59]. - Industrial Silicon: In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products increased year - on - year and month - on - month [65]. - Polysilicon: In August, the total social electricity consumption increased year - on - year [69]. - Lithium Carbonate: An Australian mining company signed a lithium carbonate supply agreement with a South Korean battery manufacturer [75]. Logic Analysis - Copper: Macro factors and fundamental factors jointly affect the copper market. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and consumption is not strong during the peak season [4]. - Alumina: The domestic and international spot prices of alumina are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to increase, and the fundamental trend is weak [12]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: After the decline in aluminum prices, downstream demand has increased, and social inventories have decreased slightly. The Fed's attitude towards further interest - rate cuts is cautious, and the European manufacturing PMI has fallen back into the contraction range [20]. - Zinc: In September, domestic refined zinc may be slightly oversupplied, but overseas de - stocking and the Back structure of LME0 - 3 may support zinc prices. The export window of domestic refined zinc may open [35]. - Lead: The supply of lead ingots may increase, and downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the National Day holiday. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the lead price is expected to maintain high - level shock [42]. - Nickel: The impact of Indonesian policies on nickel ore supply is limited, and LME inventory is expected to continue to increase. The nickel price maintains a wide - range shock trend [45]. - Stainless Steel: Although production has increased in September, demand has not shown a seasonal peak. There is both supply pressure and cost support, and the market is expected to maintain a shock trend [53]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Short - term supply shows some improvement, and the tin price is expected to maintain high - level shock [60]. - Industrial Silicon: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [66]. - Polysilicon: Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted - sales background [70]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and weak downstream stocking enthusiasm, and the lithium carbonate price shows wide - range shock [75]. Trading Strategies - Copper: Short - term copper prices are slightly under pressure; continue to hold cross - market positive spreads; and wait and see for options [6]. - Alumina: The alumina price shows weak shock; conduct reverse spreads for month - spreads; and wait and see for options [13][14]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The aluminum price shows short - term shock and stabilization; wait and see for spreads; and wait and see for options [21][22]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum alloy futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price; go long on AD and short on AL for spreads; and wait and see for options [28][29]. - Zinc: The short - term zinc price may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to LME inventory changes; wait and see for spreads; and wait and see for options [36]. - Lead: The short - term lead price may maintain high - level shock, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices [43]. - Nickel: The nickel price maintains a wide - range shock trend; wait and see for spreads; and wait and see for options [46][47]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel price maintains a wide - range shock trend; wait and see for spreads [54][55]. - Tin: The tin price maintains high - level shock; wait and see for options [61][62]. - Industrial Silicon: Take long positions; sell out - of - the - money put options; and there is no spread strategy [67]. - Polysilicon: Take long positions after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; and sell put options [73]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price shows wide - range shock; wait and see for spreads; and sell wide - span option combinations [76].