银河期货白糖日报-20250924

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, September 24, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closed at 5,478, up 45 (0.83%), with a trading volume of 666 (up 107) and an open interest of 2,422 (up 131) [5] - SR01: Closed at 5,497, up 53 (0.97%), with a trading volume of 287,568 (up 65,357) and an open interest of 439,006 (down 35,005) [5] - SR05: Closed at 5,464, up 53 (0.98%), with a trading volume of 21,828 (down 1,603) and an open interest of 63,973 (down 1,542) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou at 5,890, Kunming at 5,905, Wuhan at 6,080, Nanning at 5,780, Bayuquan at 6,015, Rizhao at 5,900, and Xi'an at 6,270, with no change [5] - Basis: Liuzhou at 393, Kunming at 408, Wuhan at 583, Nanning at 283, Bayuquan at 518, Rizhao at 403, and Xi'an at 773 [5] Inter - month Spreads - SR5 - SR01 spread at - 33 (no change), SR09 - SR5 spread at 14 (down 8), SR09 - SR01 spread at - 19 (down 8) [5] Import Profits - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 at 16.16, premium at 0.06, freight at 41.50, in - quota price at 4,440, out - of - quota price at 5,655, spread with Liuzhou at 235, spread with Rizhao at 245, and spread with the futures market at - 158 [5] - Thai imports: ICE主力 at 16.16, premium at 0.89, freight at 18.00, in - quota price at 4,399, out - of - quota price at 5,600, spread with Liuzhou at 290, spread with Rizhao at 300, and spread with the futures market at - 103 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - StoneX predicts Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production in 2026/27 to reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase, and cane crushing volume to reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% increase [7] - The global sugar market in 2025/26 is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons, with estimated production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons [7] - Thailand's sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.4 million tons, compared to 10 million tons in 2024/25; India's is expected to be 32.3 million tons, compared to 26.1 million tons in 2024/25 [7] - Inner Mongolia Hefeng Agriculture started sugar - beet processing, expecting to process 680,000 tons; Xinjiang Luxiang Sugar Industry's 2025/2026 production season officially began [8][10] - Super - typhoon Huajiacha brought wind and rain to eastern and coastal Guangxi, with different levels of precipitation and wind in different periods [9] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is at its supply peak, and global inventories are accumulating. The latest data shows a high sugar - making ratio and increased sugar production in Brazil, which has a negative impact on prices, but low - price sugar has strong support [11] - Domestically, China's sugar imports in August remained high, domestic sugar inventories are low, and the sales - to - production ratio is high. The domestic market is affected by international sugar prices. Low prices and low domestic inventories make it difficult for Zhengzhou sugar prices to fall further. The typhoon in Guangdong and Guangxi may support Zhengzhou sugar prices [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to international sugar rebound and weather effects [12] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [13] - Options: Hold off on trading [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventories, production - sales ratios, Liuzhou's sugar spot price, price spreads between regions and contracts, and basis of different contract months [17][18][22][26][27][29]