原油：原油震荡上行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for the crude oil market [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weakening. The end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase are factors contributing to the bearish outlook. Therefore, it is advisable to short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, but an unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories, alleviating previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the US refinery utilization rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, sold to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Geopolitical risks have not further escalated, and with the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2511 contract, rose 1.47% to 482.3 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 478.5 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 485.3 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4,784 to 33,039 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel but expects the price to drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day, and IEA has raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day in the week of September 12. US crude oil product four - week average supply decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, with gasoline weekly demand increasing by 3.55% to 8.81 million barrels per day and diesel weekly demand increasing by 7.23% to 3.621 million barrels per day [4].