Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-24 11:06Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Coking Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be between 1200 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 37.90% and a historical percentile of 73.74% [3] - The monthly price range for coke is predicted to be between 1650 - 1850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.18% and a historical percentile of 62.12% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging for Coke: When coke production recovers rapidly, and the spot supply - demand becomes loose, coke enterprises worried about price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - Procurement Management for Coking Coal: Due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - overrun inspections, coking plants worried about price increases can long - buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1200, 1250) and 50% at (1150, 1200) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - For various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese, the report shows their warehouse receipt quantities on September 24, 23, and 17, as well as the daily and weekly changes [4] Market Situation Analysis - Downstream pre - holiday stockpiling improved the coking coal inventory structure, and there was a price - support sentiment at the mine mouth, leading to a stop in the decline and a rebound of coking coal spot prices. The second - round price cut for coke was fully implemented, and the cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, squeezing coking profits. Some coke enterprises tried to raise prices, but it was difficult to implement before the holiday [4] Outlook and Strategy - "Anti - involution" remains the focus in the second half of the year. Market participants' expectations for the future have improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Coal and coke are not considered as short - allocation in the black series. The high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices. The report does not recommend using coking coal as a short - allocation in the black series and suggests paying attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Pre - holiday seasonal stockpiling by downstream, improved inventory pressure at mines, price - support at the mine mouth, and attempts by some coke enterprises to raise prices; the second - round price cut for coke improved steel profits, and high pig - iron production provided rigid support for coal and coke demand in the short term; "Anti - involution" is the trading focus, and macro - sentiment will affect the market; the Fed's 25BP interest rate cut and expected further cuts support the overall valuation of commodities [4][6] - Negative Factors: High social inventory pressure of finished steel products and lower - than - expected peak - season demand limit the rebound space of coal and coke; high average daily customs clearance at the 288 Port and high coal shipping volume indicate strong imported coal supply [4][7] Group 4: Coal and Coke Price Data Futures Price Data - The report provides detailed data on coking coal and coke futures, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, coking profit, and various ratios such as the ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio, along with their daily and weekly changes [8] Spot Price Data - It shows the spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported coal, different types of coke, and their daily and weekly changes. It also presents data on import and export profits, coking profits, and the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal [9][10] Group 5: Graphical Data - The report includes multiple graphs showing historical volatility percentages of coking coal and coke, seasonal customs clearance vehicle numbers at the 288 Port, term - structure spread of coking coal and coke, seasonal patterns of futures spreads and basis, warehouse receipt inventory seasonality, import profit seasonality, coking profit seasonality, and ratio seasonality between different types of coal and thermal coal [11][12][13]