超微电脑（SMCI）：首次覆盖报告：超微电脑：AI服务器领导者，产业潜力依然巨大

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" rating to the company [2][25]. Core Insights - The competitive landscape is diversifying, with growth driven by AI technology, indicating significant industry potential [3]. - The company is positioned uniquely in the market, combining self-developed products with customized manufacturing capabilities, distinguishing it from traditional OEM and ODM players [8]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth while facing profit pressures, necessitating a valuation approach that considers future profit improvement expectations [8][50]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from $14.94 billion in FY2024 to $49.55 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 109.8%, 47.0%, 44.8%, 20.8%, and 28.9% respectively [4][26]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of $1.34 billion in FY2024, $1.28 billion in FY2025, and increasing to $2.27 billion by FY2028 [4][34]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to recover gradually, reaching 14.82% by FY2028 [15][50]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report estimates a reasonable market value of $31.25 billion for the company, with a target price of $52.59 per share based on a cautious approach [25]. - The valuation methods include both P/E and P/S ratios, reflecting the company's growth potential and current profitability levels [18][25]. Industry Analysis - The server and computing infrastructure market is characterized as a blue ocean driven by AI, with significant growth opportunities [13]. - The competitive dynamics include traditional brand manufacturers consolidating their market positions while ODM manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth due to large customer demands [8][13]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards "de-branding" in IT infrastructure, creating opportunities for white-label products [13].