Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has bottomed out and warmed up, with EG showing a slight rebound. The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol is limited, and if there are unexpected drivers in the supply side or macro aspects, the upward price will be more elastic. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4150 - 4350, and breakthrough depends on cost and macro drivers. In operation, due to short - term over - decline under sentiment suppression, the price has support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4150 - 4450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.95% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.1%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7000, with a volatility of 10.94% and a percentile of 7.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5000, with a volatility of 9.97% and a percentile of 6.9%. For bottle chips, it is 5500 - 6100, with a volatility of 7.49% and a percentile of 1.2% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4320 - 4420) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy EG2601P4100 put options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options (50 - 80) to reduce capital costs [2]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4180 - 4250) to lock in procurement costs. Sell EG2601P4100 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 80) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - Ethylene glycol has insufficient fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation target. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation is further pressured. Currently, the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, and it is not recommended to continue shorting before its realization. The supply side has little room for unexpected increases, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity, the short - term downward space is limited, while the upward price has more elasticity if there are unexpected drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based ethylene glycol plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, and the restart time is undetermined, which may lead to additional import reduction in October [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October (unplanned). The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October, and attention should be paid to the production progress [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price data of various polyester products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, toluene, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers on September 24, 2025, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [8][9].
聚酯产业风险管理日报：宏观情绪触底回暖，EG小幅反弹-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-24 12:04